China's official 11 yuan announced the central parity of RMB exchange rate of $ 1 to 6.2298 yuan, compared with the previous trading day fell more than 1136 basis points, down nearly 2%, the largest single-day decline since the exchange rate. The first reaction to the devaluation of the renminbi is that "money is gone", but for the other part of the people, the exchange rate means "money". "The exchange rate fell, which means that China 's enterprises will be more competitive and conducive to stimulating the export economy," said Zhou Ming, a senior financial adviser to the Agricultural Bank of China in Hunan Province.
At present, when the domestic market competition intensifies, China's LED display exports have increased year by year. It is understood that more than 160 countries around the world purchase LED display from China, Russia in the emerging market performance of the most eye-catching. The top ten countries of export are the United States, Germany, Russia, Australia, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Italy, Hong Kong, China, the Netherlands. Among them, the export destination for the US companies up to 54, the export destination for the German enterprises have 30, exports to Russia, there are 26 enterprises. The latest customs statistics show that in January 2015 to May, China's exports of LED display amounted to 260 million US dollars, the export volume of 44 million units. Among them, the export amount in May was about 59 million US dollars, accounting for about the first 5 months of the sum of 22.22%. So, with the RMB exchange rate fell, is it really good export, can thus promote the growth of China's LED display exports? Here we look at the specific exchange rate decline for the impact of exports, from which to explore the opportunity to export LED display.
As the global trading system continues to collapse, China will eventually join the global currency battlefield, and by then it will have to promote the devaluation of the renminbi.
China's General Administration of Customs data show that in July China's import and export trade statistics, import and export volume of 2.12 trillion yuan, down 8.8% year on year. Among them, the export of 1.19 trillion yuan, imports 930.2 billion yuan, down 8.9% and 8.6%; July trade surplus of 263 billion yuan, down 10%.
Also, from the first seven months of this year, the total import and export trade volume of 13.63 trillion yuan, down 7.3% over the same period last year. Among them, exports 7.75 million yuan, down 0.9%; it is worth noting that imports only 5.88 trillion yuan, down 14.6% over the same period last year.
From these data, first, China's export trade decline so fast, in the end what is the reason? Have to seriously study. But there are two points worthy of attention. Is the rapid decline in China's exports in July due to the decline in China's export competitiveness, or monetary factors? It's clear. There is no doubt that with the sharp rise in China's real estate prices in recent years, it is bound to pull up the wages of the whole society and the operating costs of cities and enterprises, weakening the competitiveness of Chinese exports.
Also, the strength of the RMB on the current export competitiveness of Chinese products will also have a great impact. According to the latest data from the National Clearing Bank (BIS), the effective exchange rate index for the renminbi was 130.08 in June, and the index showed that in the past year, although the exchange rate of the renminbi and the dollar remained stable, the central parity of the US dollar was At the level of 6.12, but the real effective exchange rate of RMB rose by as much as 14%. In other words, nearly a year, the yuan with the appreciation of the dollar and strong, which will inevitably lead to the RMB appreciation of other non-dollar currencies. For example, at the end of June this year, the exchange rate of the yuan against the euro, the yen exchange rate were 1 euro exchange rate of 6.8699 yuan, 100 yen exchange 5.0052 yuan, respectively, compared with the end of 2014 appreciation of 8.53% and 2.64%.
China Customs data show that due to the strength of the yuan in the past year with the strength of the dollar, and the resulting substantial effective exchange rate rose sharply or a sharp appreciation of non-dollar currencies, which is caused by China's exports to non-dollar currencies, an important reason for the decline The For example, China's exports to the EU and Japan fell by 4.4% and 11.1% respectively in the first seven months of this year, according to China Customs. According to the first half of the year, China's exports to the EU fell 3.4% from June to 12.3% in July. China's exports to Japan fell 6.0% from June to 13% in July. In other words, the yuan in July with the dollar against non-dollar currencies, has seriously affected China's exports to these non-dollar currencies. If the dollar hike, the yuan and then with the dollar against non-dollar currencies, then the second half of China's export trade will decline.
While the first seven months of China's imports fell rapidly, and fell more than 14%. This shows that China's economic weakness may lead to insufficient domestic demand, the reduction in external demand; the other hand, also shows that the dollar after the strong, the global commodity prices fell sharply, which will naturally allow the dollar or yuan-denominated import trade The total amount has dropped significantly. Such as this year's oil prices fell sharply. If the latter factors dominate, then the decline in China's imports is not a bad thing. It can reduce the relevant enterprises to purchase the cost of goods, increase business income, but also conducive to the growth of residents related to consumption.
The above analysis may see that in China's import and export trade is basically balanced, it is estimated that China does not need to devalue the renminbi to adjust the current trade relations, or promote China to increase exports. Because, the devaluation of the RMB is China's import and export trade is a pros and cons of things. The China International Investment Promotion Center Director Zhang Yuzhong also said that the small changes in the exchange rate will have an impact on economic and trade investment, but the impact of the current investment areas, is not very obvious. For exporters, the yuan exchange rate fell, on the one hand exports will be more competitive prices because of export prices to enhance; the other hand, if the dollar settlement will be able to exchange more yuan to enhance corporate profits.
Of course, if the RMB exchange rate continues to fall, then it will bring impact on China's traditional exports. Well-known financial commentator Ye Tan today also said in microblogging, "export traditional comparative advantage is no longer, the new advantage is not the rise, for the time being only to re-find the price advantage, which is a huge transition test." In this situation, Export LED display companies need to prepare early, identify the development point.