2015 for most of the LED industry is a very tough year. Although LED lighting demand continues to rise, and a large number of traditional lighting applications to replace, but the oversupply to make the average price decline of LED unit price range of 30 to 40% range. Making more and more manufacturers face losses and exit the market. For the upcoming 2016, LEDinside research association in the ultra-LED industry prospects for finishing the top ten trends. Respectively, from the market to explore the possibility of future LED industry consolidation. As well as technical aspects of LED technology to explore new directions.
2016 LED industry ten development trend
From the LED market trends, consolidation and elimination is still the focus of future industry observation. The following are LEDinside finishing the five major market trends:
1.LED industry future growth slowed down
As the LED industry oversupply, making the average price fell sharply, LEDinside forecast global high brightness LED market output in 2015 only 14.52 billion US dollars, the annual growth of only 2% of the standard. Looking forward to the next five years, despite the demand for LED lighting led the number of sustained growth, but because of the efficiency of LED, resulting in the use of LED to reduce the number, coupled with the price of LED prices are still pressure. So look forward to the next five years, LED industry, the compound annual growth rate is not easy to occur over the past 10% growth rate.
2. LED device prices will eventually shrink
2015 backlight and lighting market demand as expected, making the average price of LED chips and packaging are significantly reduced, especially in the 2H15 LED chip and packaging prices showed diving down, and even some of the specifications of the LED chip and packaging prices have fallen To the cost of materials. Leading to many LED manufacturers face a dilemma. Although the short term LED is still facing the pressure to continue to cut prices, but long-term observation, LED prices have been close to the cost of production of many manufacturers can be expected in the future there will be more and more manufacturers out of the market, so the future decline in LED prices will eventually narrow the space.
3. China for the LED industry policy shift
As the past decade, the Chinese government to support the LED industry spare no effort, but also put a lot of resources to subsidize enterprises to enhance the LED domestic ratio. At present, China is already the world's largest LED lighting production base. But more upstream MOCVD equipment or some of the material or only rely on foreign companies. So the future of China's policy will encourage industrial innovation, and more concerned about the basic materials in the upstream, such as the development of wide bandgap semiconductor, or the Internet of Things intelligent lighting applications.
4.LED enterprises to close the tide to reproduce
Due to exchange rate fluctuations in 2015, leading to poor end-market demand, coupled with the price continued to decline. Many small and medium-sized LED companies are facing great loss pressure. As many companies have entered the vicious cycle of cash outflows, will lead to some poor quality of small manufacturers out of the market due to broken funds. Especially in the Chinese Lunar New Year will be a wave of LED manufacturers closed down tide.
5. China LED manufacturers to start overseas mergers and acquisitions and transformation
Chinese listed companies by virtue of the A shares of the valuation bonus, through the stock market fundraising and government funds to support overseas mergers and acquisitions. In particular, some Chinese companies have begun to target the international LED patent manufacturers and lighting brands, hoping to reinforce the patent and overseas sales channels. In addition, we also observed that more and more LED manufacturers have begun to seek transformation, some Chinese LED manufacturers have begun to take the means of mergers and acquisitions to other areas, hoping to get rid of bargain competition in the Red Sea market.
While the other part of the LED technology, LEDinside also observed the five major technical trends
6. TV LED backlight into the flip chip LED (Flip Chip LED)
In the past, because of the yield and production cost factors, only a few manufacturers as the main product. But after 2014, more and more manufacturers in Taiwan and South Korea to invest in LED technology development, quality improvement and cost reduction benefits gradually emerge. 2015 Korean manufacturers have been a significant introduction to the field of LED backlight LED backlight, and Korean TV brand manufacturers are also widely used as LED backlight LED. We also observed that more and more Taiwan and Chinese manufacturers have also begun to actively promote the re-crystal LED, and even smaller CSP LED in the field of television backlight. So the penetration of LED technology in the TV LED backlight penetration will be pulled up in the next few years.
7. Low-cost in power, replacement of light source products will rapidly increase the penetration rate
As the LED bulb and lamp such replacement light source product specifications have been gradually standardized. Coupled with the lighting manufacturers to actively promote the brand, at present, many countries, the retail price of LED bulb has been close to the traditional price of energy-saving lamps. Looking ahead 2016, each lighting manufacturers continue to find a lower cost solution, in addition to LED price cuts, the LED lighting manufacturers are also concerned about the drive power and other components are still price space, hoping to achieve through the overall system design Lower cost solution. The lighting brand manufacturers hope that through low retail price and expand product sales to enhance market share. So the replacement of light source products will be the penetration rate within three years of rapid increase.
8. The bright future of intelligent lighting is bright, but the road is rugged
Although the LED manufacturers for smart lighting shouting shock price, but in fact sales are not as market expectations. The most important key reason, in addition to the high price, the most critical issue is whether the intelligent lighting provided by the additional function is able to meet the real needs of consumers. Most of the current features of intelligent lighting still stay in the remote control, color and color temperature changes, but most consumers seem to be reluctant to pay for these features to pay a higher premium. And LEDinside observes that smart lighting combined with the Internet will have the opportunity to generate more added value, but this involves a long list of supply chains with the ecology and therefore still needs long-term observations.
9. Vehicle headlight technology change
LED headlight development so far, has gradually extended from the high-end models to the high-end models, and the original high-end vehicle vacancies, is expected to be by the laser headlights by the fill, but because of the current supply of car laser module Supply is not much, so it is limited to specific brands and models, the future look forward to more suppliers of investment, it is possible to expand more vehicles. In addition, the matrix LED headlamp module has gradually emerged, the advantage is that through the semiconductor control mode for the light area to do the scope of cutting, to avoid the safety of the car has always been the problem, to be in the high brightness and safety above The But also the focus of the development of the vehicle module factory one of the technical direction.
10. Invisible light applications are gradually being taken seriously
As the white LED price competition, so LED manufacturers want to find some new special applications to improve profitability. For example, invisible light LED is gradually concerned by the LED manufacturers, including UV or IR LED applications. Although the visible light LED market size is limited, can not be compared with LED lighting or backlight applications. But because of technical difficulties, customization needs, and need to work closely with the system factory, so enter the high threshold. So not visible light LED product gross margin was significantly better than white LED. UV LED, for example, the current UV LED is still widely used in the field of exposure and curing, but the application of sterilization has gradually been taken seriously, especially in the UVC band because of the high technical threshold, relatively few suppliers, so each LED manufacturers actively put into development UVC band of LEDs. In addition, the current application of infrared LED or remote remote control, or security-based applications. But the infrared LED market is widely used, including image sensing, somatosensory / motion detection, optical blocking sensing, proximity switches, position sensing, biometric, pulse oximetry. Future infrared LED in the handheld application device applications, including information security and health management and its added value, profitability can be expected, is expected to drive the steady development of infrared LED market